To Fire or Not to Fire

Seat 1: gamblegambel ( $4111.04 USD )

Seat 3: bigguylegend22 ( $2773.33 USD )

Seat 4: taongo ( $6014.50 USD )

Seat 5: leptitfayth ( $2000.00 USD )

Seat 6: rohass ( $1033.00 USD )

bigguylegend22 posts small blind [$10.00 USD].

taongo posts big blind [$20.00 USD].

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to gamblegambel [ 9c Kd ]

leptitfayth folds

rohass folds

gamblegambel raises [$40.00 USD]

bigguylegend22 folds

taongo calls [$20.00 USD]

** Dealing Flop ** [ Qc, 6h, 4s ]

taongo checks

gamblegambel bets [$60.00 USD]

taongo calls [$60.00 USD]

** Dealing Turn ** [ Js ]

taongo checks

gamblegambel bets [$150.00 USD]

taongo calls [$150.00 USD]

** Dealing River ** [ 2h ]

So this is a very common situation that arises in many different forms in poker; an opponent has called two bets oop on a dry board and the river bricks. So math and game theory would tell us that the proportion in which one should bluff here should be directly relative to your bet size. To put it most simply, it you bet pot on the river here you should be bluffing 33% of the time to be perfectly balanced. That in itself can be a tricky thing to obtain precisely. But the beautiful thing about poker is that there are many other variables that shift this natural Nash Equilibrium all over the map: psychology, history, player tendencies, timing, current emotional states etc. As an avid gamer there is almost nothing more mentally stimulating than discussing and analyzing the endless possibilities.