I will do my best to recreated the situation...
A satellite for a 12k package into the WSOP ME. 57 people get seats and there are 58 people left on 7 tables. Your current table has two big stacks that are stealing nearly every hand. The other tables are giving plenty of walks, some medium stacks are taking bad gambles, and others are folding into the seat who can. Blinds are 2k/4k[500] and you have just shy of 20k in 2nd position. There are currently 5-7 shorter stack who are further from the blinds and about 8 other stacks between 25k and 35k. If you fold the next three hands you will be down to 12k and be around the shortest stack, in which case most likely a majority of the short stacks will wait till you double or bust to risk their stack. If you double up this hand you will get the seat 99.9% Your jam is getting called everytime here so the math boils down to do you think you are over 85% to get a seat if you fold this hand...
PokerStars Game #27538035502: Tournament #156589739,
> $615+$35 Hold'em No Limit - Level XXV (2000/4000) -
> 2009/04/27 0:58:42 ET
> Table '156589739 38' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
> Seat 1: DaHussstla (25228 in chips)
> Seat 2: IAmSnow (71539 in chips)
> Seat 3: Mateywin (201881 in chips)
> Seat 4: predator.ger (64730 in chips)
> Seat 5: budman1 (19797 in chips)
> Seat 6: JasonGray (34402 in chips)
> Seat 8: LottoMartin (138398 in chips)
> Seat 9: olivano (11590 in chips)
> DaHussstla: posts the ante 500
> IAmSnow: posts the ante 500
> Mateywin: posts the ante 500
> predator.ger: posts the ante 500
> budman1: posts the ante 500
> JasonGray: posts the ante 500
> LottoMartin: posts the ante 500
> olivano: posts the ante 500
> IAmSnow: posts small blind 2000
> Mateywin: posts big blind 4000
> *** HOLE CARDS ***
> Dealt to budman1 [Ac As]
> predator.ger: folds
> budman1: raises 15297 to 19297 and is all-in
> JasonGray: folds
> LottoMartin: folds
> LottoMartin is sitting out
> olivano: folds
> DaHussstla: folds
> IAmSnow: folds
> Mateywin: calls 15297
> *** FLOP *** [2s Qd 6h]
> *** TURN *** [2s Qd 6h] [7h]
> *** RIVER *** [2s Qd 6h 7h] [5d]
> *** SHOW DOWN ***
> Mateywin: shows [4c 5c] (a pair of Fives)
> budman1: shows [Ac As] (a pair of Aces)
> budman1 collected 44594 from pot
5 comments:
If you chose to play no more hands, how many of the 5-7 shorter stacks would be forced to go all-in before you go broke?
I think a fold is correct.
TD
I believe all of them would have had to go allin before budman.
Another factor besides we knew the BB was calling, is that who knows if 1 or more of the other big stacks might call too. After discussing this factor after the fact, it further strengthened my view this was a fold.
If you figure 6 guys had to double prior to budman, this puts him at roughly 85% to make it assuming he loses 100% of the time he has to go allin. However, he will, in fact, win some of the times he is forced allin (say on avg 35% or so). This increases that 85% some. Another all important factor is random idiocy (some guy taking a dumb ass risk with a larger stack and busting). With all this looked at (albeit some of it after the fact), I still think he was roughly 90% to move on. This alone makes AA a fold.
I definitely should have folded looking back. I think now it was a clear decision and even though I made it, I regret the decision.
it's a lose lose situation. LET IT RIIIIIDE!
yup fold
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