As some of you may already know I did a little research in Vegas on how to beat craps and fared pretty well for the summer on the tables. Beginners luck? Maybe... I went ahead an purchased a pair of dice at the gift shop from the actual tables to do some further research back home.
Thesis: Properly aligned dice thrown with minimal interference can lower the likelihood that a seven will be rolled, thus giving the player an advantage on the house in the game of craps.
[I understand a thorough study of this nature could take quite some time so this will be done in many parts.]
Experiment (1) : Dice were aligned with the 3's forming a V formation with 8's and 6's on all showing opposed faces on the dice. They were then repeatedly thrown approximately 5 feet on a rug against a wall 247 times resulting in the following data:
2: 8 (3.24%)
3: 16 (6.48%)
4: 31 (12.55%)
5: 32 (12.96%)
6: 34 (13.77%)
7: 36 (14.57%)
8: 36 (14.57%)
9: 20 (8.10%)
10: 16 (6.48%)
11: 12 (4.86%)
12: 6 (2.43)
Findings thus far: Although sample size is still tiny, the number seven was only rolled 14.57% of the time, which is significantly below the expected 16.67%. As well, 6 and 8 combined were rolled above the expected 13.89%.
Conclusion: If these number continue after several more intensive studies of this nature, I will be making some very significant wagers on the craps tables.
9 comments:
But based on this, don't bet the dollar yo.............
If you can prove this over thousands of trials, count me in for the next Vegas trip. You should look into p-values and t-tests to prove your hypothesis. Also I'd be happy to write the book and/or screenplay for "Bringing Down the House II: Craps" or "21 2: Less 7s"
I put my vote in for waste of time.
No matter what you are guaranteed to find statistical anomalies that lead you to believe that the dice can be controlled. This WILL happen because your arm will fall off before you get 1/1000th of the way to a big enough sample.
With that conclusion stuck in your mind you will eventually hold the dice in a certain manner where your tests will again show an anomaly that you THINK makes a 7 less likely.(you'll just keep changing how you hold em till you find it!)
Eureka! You will then go to Vegas with that "strategy" and give the house their regular edge on sums of money you normally would not bet. At least you'll get some good comps though!
Hope you run well though =)
I have no choice at this point to jump to the same conclusion. How do I buy a piece?
- ThePHC
We all know most Vegas craps games are played on common house rugs and a standard wall so I think we are onto something. I think we need a robot arm so the dice are thrown the same each time.
If and when this proves successful, you may not want to publish anything saying so, any you may want to delete this post.
This is so ludicrous that someone as smart as you is wasting time doing this "research". First of all, I agree with everything Remmy said and Second of all, there are much more efficient ways to do this experiment.
What's up with the pseudo web psychology and the poppycock reasoning from the peanut gallery?
Screw the haters, Joel. Keep the dream alive.
Too bad there isn't a "coin flip" casino game... Coin flips can absolutely be controlled.
http://www.codingthewheel.com/archives/the-coin-flip-a-fundamentally-unfair-proposition
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