I play a lot of games and I love analogies. Lately I've been trying to beat Punch Out again (haven't taken down the big guy since I was no more than 13 years old). Heads up poker and a boxing match are two peas in a pod. It usually starts off with small pots and some feeler jabs; no one looks for a knock out blow early. Ultimately the only way to get an edge on your opponent is to counter what he is doing. Once you start forcing blows and get out of rhythm it is game over. One thing that really caught my attention the other day was this graph I stumbled upon when looking up some NFL stats. It
basically plots the likelihood of an onside kick's success against the odds your opponent thinks you will do an onside kick. Bottom line is the less they are expecting it the higher the success rate. There are so many examples of this in poker where a play is profitable as long as your opponent doesn't think you are doing it. It's a tricky balance to do something every single time it isn't expected.
I play a lot of games and I love analogies. Lately I've been trying to beat Punch Out again (haven't taken down the big guy since I was no more than 13 years old). Heads up poker and a boxing match are two peas in a pod. It usually starts off with small pots and some feeler jabs; no one looks for a knock out blow early. Ultimately the only way to get an edge on your opponent is to counter what he is doing. Once you start forcing blows and get out of rhythm it is game over. One thing that really caught my attention the other day was this graph I stumbled upon when looking up some NFL stats. It 
basically plots the likelihood of an onside kick's success against the odds your opponent thinks you will do an onside kick. Bottom line is the less they are expecting it the higher the success rate. There are so many examples of this in poker where a play is profitable as long as your opponent doesn't think you are doing it. It's a tricky balance to do something every single time it isn't expected.
2 comments:
What is "win probability"?
This graph followed a previous one that plotted the likelihood a team would win against the likelihood they attempted an onside kick. As one would suspect it was a direct correlation, so they are nearly interchangeable for the X-axis.
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