In response to comments from the post below...
"He's first to act and is representing the king. it would be stupid for gamble to stay in if he didn't have a k (which matusow has good odds that he doesn't)" -david
Let's take a better look at this hand. First what is my raising range from small blind. Since it is mike and I know he gambles a tad thin, I will raise a littler tighter here/mostly for value - probably only top 14.8% of hands, which is:
55+, A7s+, K9s+, QJs+, A9o+, KJo+, QTs
Now when mike shoves he is risking 800 to win 475. So his EV in the hand is his fold equity times the pot at the time (475) minus when I call (1 - fold equity) times (800 -his equity against my calling range times total pot (1900)). So let's look at my calling range (I am calling 675 to win 1275 - just under 2:1)
When I call:
My range will be: KK, JJ, 55, AA, AK, AJ, K9s+,KJo+, Ad7d+ - 7.9% of known hands
So his fold equity is (14.8-7.9)/14.8 = 6.9/14.8 = 46.62% of the time I will fold and he will pick up the pot.
.4662 * 475 = 221.45 dollars positive equity
Now for when I call (53.38%)...
He will lose the 800 minus his equity in the pot against my calling range. Using poker stove I can see that 7s8h against my calling range is 6.48%. So 800 - (.0648 * 1900) = 676.88
.5338 * 676.88 = 361.32 dollars negative equity
221.45 - 361.32 = -139.87
Total equity in his shove = negative 139.87 dollars
So it was not a good play and he gave away 140 dollars in free money.
12 comments:
yes!!!!!
I really enjoyed this post. It's hilarious that you can so deeply analyze what is "just a dumbass play man" - Gnightmoon. It does a great job at emphasizing the importance of knowing a players range, having at least some outs on bluffs against that range, bluffing boards that decrease your opponents calling range ( i.e. the jack rag rag boards that we see Townsend bluff at... not the KdJdx board)
Anyhow, doesn't your range "change" as soon as you continuation bet? Also, you can include QTdd, and QJs in your calling range( If you are including AJ, QJs is the same basically ). Given those two things, I think this play is worse than -140$.
Solid analysis.
I haven't felt this owned by math since AP Calc.
As a non-math player, this was a real good post to read. I was wondering, you fold KTo and Q9s if folded to you in the SB?
I wasn't trying to defend his play as I know it was a bad one, I was just offering a possibility as to why he made it.
okay "david", why try to justify a bad play? Maybe you start following another poker blog out there or just stick with your home page, "perezhilton.com". Either way this blog is obviously over your head and too much for a n00b like yourself to handle. If you continue to follow this blog, just try to think out your comments before you post them, and maybe get an approval from your mom and dad before you embarass yourself again. I'm just trying to help you out.
Isn't the point to understand your competitors? By trying to understand why they made a play they did, you can anticipate how they may act in the future - reading your opponent.
Sorry if I offended you "matt," I apparently need to pass everything by you to meet your approval.
Playing off the topic of math from this blog, here's a mathematical equation:
Klopzi's statement of:
I really don't get Matusow's play here. Does he honestly think you're gonna fold getting 2:1 on your money?
Good stuff.
+ David's defensive statement in favor of matusow of:
He's first to act and is representing the king. it would be stupid for gamble to stay in if he didn't have a k (which matusow has good odds that he doesn't)
= David got his poker training from Poker after Dark and he is still a n00b.
haha, love it.
u fold QQ on that flop? but you call AJ? Explain please?
Nice catch on the folding QQ and calling AJ. The biggest difference between the two is how they play against AdXd. That is if he has the nut flush draw AJ plays much better than QQ. Nonetheless, QQ is more valuable than AJ against his range - so i should be calling with it. You might also notice I forgot to factor out the 6% in the when I call section from the 800. If you factor that in with the QQ call they come really close to washing each other out. Either way you look at it you get similar final results.
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